CPI Rises, Ensures Rate Hike
OK, today’s CPI report pretty much guarantees the Fed will hike rates the end of this month. The rise in the "core rate" (the CPI excluding food and energy) is most worrisome to the Fed. …
Retail Sales Flat
Retail sales were flat last month. Biggest problem was cars, which were down a percent and a half. Gasoline purchases–not adjusted for price increases–rose nearly two percent, so we didn’t have a lot left over …
Productivity Improvement Spreading
In the 1990s, productivity (output per work hour) growth was concentrated in just a few industries. We know that high tech companies substantially gained in productivity, including semiconductor manufacturers and computer assemblers. Surprisingly, the rest …
What Will the Fed Do Next?
I’ve got my opinions, but it makes sense to see what the market thinks. By manipulating data on options on Fed Funds futures, you can estimate the market’s expectations in terms of the probability of …
Radio Interview
I was interviewed on the Sound Investing radio show out of Seattle. We covered investments and the economy. To hear it, click here. My segment begins at 31 minutes, 15 seconds into the program. Incidentally, …
Economic Growth Slowing; Fed Likely to Hold
The recent economic news suggests a slowing of the rate of economic growth. Economic growth is not changing dramatically, but the news displays a minor change of pace. Most obvious is employment growth, which has …
Consumer Attitudes Dip
By either of the two main gauges, consumer attitudes declined in May. The difference in the two surveys is that the University of Michigan is showing a downward trend over the last year and a …
Corporate Profits Up Nicely
Corporate profits shot up 40% (annualized growth) in the first quarter, compared to the fourth quarter of 2005. The 4-quarter growth is a strong 25%. Looks nice (unless you’re a socialist). Apparently, rising costs from …
Home Sales Up or Down? Yes
If you’re not comfortable looking at conflicting data, go study Mideast politics or something else that’s simple. The government tells us that new home sales are up last month, but just partially recovering from a …
China’s Labor Shortage
"Early this year, at a job fair held in Fuzhou, the capital of Fujian province in China, more than 50,000 positions designed to encourage farmers to move to urban areas went unfilled." Knowledge at Wharton …
Employment Soft, Wages Up
Interesting employment news. The headline is weak job gains. The economy added 138,000 jobs, versus expectations and a recent average of about 200,000 jobs per month. This move was "blippish" rather than indicating a fundamental …
Productivity On Trend Line
Productivity (output per hour worked) grew at its long-run average growth rate last quarter. That long-run average is 2.5 percent, so we’re right on track. Also in this report is an estimate of unit labor …