Economy Archives - Conerly Consulting

26 Jun 2026

GDP Confirms Solid Growth, But Hormuz Risk Hasn’t Fully Cleared

Blog Economy

by Conerly Consulting staff The economy is performing close to the script I laid out in my January 2026 forecast, even after a war that briefly threatened to upend it. The Bureau of Economic …

19 Nov 2019

Recession 101: What Business Leaders Need to Know about Economic Downturns

Business Economy Recession

Business leaders are worried about recession. Their responsibility, however, is not just to survive a downturn, but to capitalize on good times before the recession comes. I’ve held several workshops for company executives and owners …

15 Dec 2016

What State Government Can Do About Economic Uncertainty

Business Strategy Economy Public Policy

I testified before the Oregon legislature regarding uncertainty about the economy and state revenue forecast. The entire session, including two great fellow economists, Tim Duy and Andrew Dyke, can be seen here. Or watch just …

22 Nov 2016

Questions About Recessions

Business Strategy Economy

What will cause the next recession? In 2014 I wrote The Next Recession: Cause and Timing and said, “The Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its stimulus is the most likely cause of the next recession. For …

17 Nov 2016

Trump and the Future of ObamaCare

Economy Health Care

In my Forbes article, President Trump's Policies Will Likely Slow Economic Growth Over The Next Two Years, I expressed skepticism about Republican willingness to actually repeal Obamacare. Now the nation's top free-market health care expert …

1 Apr 2016

Get Ready for President Clinton

Business Strategy Economy Investments Public Policy

We're still months away from the election, but my favorite political forecaster, Larry Sabato, has drilled down to important realities in The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters. He notes that it's too early …

14 Feb 2016

Marriage Is Good For Your Heart (and other Valentine’s Day Statistics)

Economy Trial and Error Economy

Listen to yesterday's Prairie Home Companion song on romantic statistics: scroll down to "Statistics" after clicking here. Happy Valentine's Day, readers. Bill

10 Jan 2016

Are We In Recession Now?

Economy Recession

I often hear commentators saying that we are already in a recession. This could be the case because the data always come out with a time lag. The official arbiter of recessions, the Business Cycle …

17 Dec 2015

The Presidency and the Economy

Economy Public Policy

I don't incorporate much politics into my economic forecasts. I'm no better than average at predicting electoral outcomes. Even if I knew who was going to win, I wouldn't know what that person would do …

28 Aug 2015

Business Economics Posts On My Forbes.com Blog

Business Strategy Economy

Most of my work is going onto my Forbes.com blog. Here are my recent posts that have gotten a lot of attention: What's Next For The Stock Market After A Big Drop? Manufacturing Has Come …

29 Mar 2015

Why I Don’t Watch TV News About The Economy

Economy

This is why I don't watch TV News. (Hat tip to Eric Fruits, Econ International Blog)

21 Sep 2014

Correlation and Causation: A Great Reminder

Business Strategy Economy Public Policy

We've heard it (and I've said it) thousands of times: correlation does not mean causation. Yet we still make the mistake (and I do mean "we"). Tyler Vigen has developed a correlation machine. He has …