Home Sales Up or Down? Yes

If you’re not comfortable looking at conflicting data, go study Mideast politics or something else that’s simple.  The government tells us that new home sales are up last month, but just partially recovering from a sharp drop early in the year; while the Realtors (TM) tell us that existing home sales returned to its downward trend.

Here’s what we know: the trend is down for both new and existing homes.  Optimists can only hope that the future decline is mild; hoping for an uptrend is not optimistic, it’s insane.

Take a look at new homes (including platted but unbuilt) on the market: more and more supply here:

There may be occassional upturns in sales as builders rush to dump their product, but new construction is sure to decline, and thus, sales sure to decline, through the next two years, at least.

Business Strategy: Businesses is in the residential real estate supply chain, including mortgage brokers, should start to hunker down.