New Newsletter Available
The latest issue of the Businomics (TM) Newsletter is available here. Unusual item this month: Business Planning for Recession checklist. I’m not forecasting a recession, but the risk of one beginning in the next 12-18 …
The Fed is Done
The Fed announced today that it would leave the Fed Funds rate steady. This is it. No more rate hikes this cycle. Short-term rates will be level for months. The next move is more likely …
Employment Weak; Forecast Weaker
Employment growth was weak again, and the unemployment rate ticked up. I focus mostly on the growth of net new jobs, using a three-month average to balance out the ups and downs: The rate at …
Non-Residential Construction Booming
Although the housing construction boom has slowed, the non-residential construction sector has started to boom. After a few years with public construction besting private sector non-res activity, that pattern has reversed. Especially strong are office …
Economic Growth Slowing
The overall economy is expanding at a much slower pace. Growth rates of consumer spending and business equipment spending were both down. Housing construction was also down, as was government. The business equipment drop surprised …
More High-Pay Jobs Being Added
Wages are rising, with more high-pay jobs being added. Here’s the picture: By either measure, wage rates are rising. (However, the Employment Cost Index, ECI, shows a slower growth rate for benefits expense.) The two …
Consumer Confidence Is . . . What?
We have conflicting trends from the two major surveys of consumer attitudes. The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence is moving up, while the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center survey of consumer sentiment is …
Home Sales Weakening
Home sales are declining, according to the National Association of Realtors report on existing homes, townhouses and condos. Not only is the number of home sales down, but prices have gained less than one percent …
Retail Sales Softening
It’s starting to get scary: no progress in retail sales excluding gasoline since January. With gasoline, retail sales have risen at an annual rate of only three percent (not adjusted for inflation) in the last …
The Fed: Time for a Vacation.
What will the Fed do next? They are scheduled to meet again in August. In thinking about their next move, I ask myself, what would I do if I had Bernanke’s job? I’d ponder two …
All Not All Deficits Are Created Equal
That’s a critical point made by economist John Tatom in an article published in the Financial Analysts Journal. (The link points to an earlier version of the paper; the final version is not available on …
Housing Construction Falling
New housing construction is falling. This morning’s data showed a five percent increase, but the trend is pretty clear: The sharp drops of the previous two months were partially reversed, but the new pace of …