What is the Yield Curve Saying?
With long bond rates declining recently, and the yield curve inverted, is this reason enough to expect a recession? Let’s take a look at as much history as we can (at least, as we can …
Electronic Commerce: My Good Forecast
Back in 2000, an investment bank asked me to study business-to-business electronic commerce. The resulting paper, E-comm Econ: The Economics of Electronic Commerce, turns out to have made some good predictions. It pooh-poohed the portals …
Housing Collapsing
Wow! New housing construction is really collapsing. The August figures for starts and permits are not record lows, but the drop in the past six months is unusually steep, measuring down 21.9%. Have we seen …
Which Way for Long Rates?
Investors, CFOs and others concerned with the outlook for long-term interest rates should look at Nouriel Roubini’s recent paper on global imbalances. Roubini lays out ten competing interpretations of the global imbalances (U.S. trade deficit, …
CFOs Think Recession Odds One-In-Three
Now CFOs tend not to be the life of any party (Greg, you’re the exception), but this is pretty gloomy even for them. The Reuters story details the survey. (A hat tip to Calculated Risk …
Housing Weak, or not a Bubble?
All the bad news on the housing industry is compiled by Comstock Partners Ø 32.6% of new mortgages and home equity loans in 2005 were interest only, up from 0.6% in 2000 Ø …
Commodity Prices to Drop?
The IMF’s latest semi-annual economic outlook contains a good chapter on non-fuel commodity prices. It’s a good exercise in microeconomics, useful for both students and business leaders who are impacted by commodity prices. The basic …
Skepticism About Low Savings
We have new research suggesting that most Americans are saving enough. In my speeches I have emphasized a bogusosity in the official savings definitions. The savings rate may be as much as ten percentage points …
Stagflation: What Is It? Is It Returning?
A reader asks about stagflation: "could you write about the causes of the ’70’s stagflation and what indicators could push the economy in that direction again?" Sure. Stagflation means stagnation (high and rising unemployment) and …
Selling During a Recession
Heard a good presentation on the topic this morning, from Ham Thorne, a mortgage originator. His first key points reiterate what I say in my forthcoming book: the time to prepare for the downturn is …
Can the Economy Be Strong If Poverty Is Not Falling?
Business leaders have asked me that, reacting to concerns that the income gains have been primarily at the upper end of the income distribution. I take these concerns with a grain of salt. First, estimates …
