Fed Policy Confusion
News reports say that the Fed is not getting its message across clearly. Certainly markets are jumping back and forth as their interpretation of the Fed’s message changes. But it’s not that hard. The Fed’s …
Semiconductors Stable at High Level
Worldwide semiconductor sales have stabilized in the last few months, at a sales pace near the all-time peak for the industry. This is dollar value; the actual volume and computing power is hugely greater. However, …
Growth continues at stable pace
Monthly figures for personal income show stable growth. Looking at recent history, recall that the Microsoft dividend (December 2004) caused income to spike up. The 12-month comparison the following December looked abnormally low. And then …
Employment Cost Increase Low
The employment cost index grew by about three percent in the first quarter. Surprisingly, benefits costs have decelerated and now are growing at about the same rate as wages: This data series is better than …
GDP Growth Strong Q1
GDP grew at a strong 4.8 percent rate in the first quarter. Long-run average is about three percent. A figure in the neighborhood of five percent was generally expected by us economists. Major contributors to …
Business Capital Spending Strong
Order for business capital goods strengthened last month. The aircraft sector had another great month, but everyday equipment also gained. The arguments for expansion of business capital spending are twofold. First, many industries are running …
New Home Sales Still Weak
The Wall Street Journal blared about the home sales rebound. Look at the data: Yes, sales rebounded in March, from February’s stunningly low pace. But the trend is still down. Even more frightening is the …
Consumers Happy
Consumer confidence rose this month, according to the Conference Board. Watching consumers directly makes more sense than asking them questions, but there’s some comfort in having the survey response match the behavior. Right now confidence …
Big Cities Losing Population
The Census reports that our largest metropolitan areas have more people moving out than moving in, excluding foreign immigration. Not only are the old northeastern cities losing domestic residents, but so are Los Angeles and …
World Economic Outlook
Need to follow economic developments around the world? A good starting place is the International Monetary Fund’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook. The IMF just issued their April 2006 report. Read it here. It’s long and …
Consumer Prices Rising
Consumer prices rose at the upper end of their recent range of growth rates. This is not an alarming report, but neither is it comforting. The "all items" index is quite volatile as energy cost …
Housing Starts Lowest in 12 Months
Last month’s housing starts were the lowest in 12 months: The month-to-month figures bounce around a lot, but this is definitely a down bounce. I think new housing construction is past its peak and headed …