Free Lunch
What is the biggest business challenge you face right now? Don’t limit yourself to economic issues, and please don’t mention any names (as in, "I’m thinking about firing Joe.") Hit the "Comments" link directly below …
Industry Growth and Investment Returns
Jeremy Siegel has a good, short article about the connection between industry growth and stock market returns. He found that fast-growing industries do not necessarily have better than average investment returns. Short answer: one pays …
Employment Soft, Wages Up
Interesting employment news. The headline is weak job gains. The economy added 138,000 jobs, versus expectations and a recent average of about 200,000 jobs per month. This move was "blippish" rather than indicating a fundamental …
Productivity On Trend Line
Productivity (output per hour worked) grew at its long-run average growth rate last quarter. That long-run average is 2.5 percent, so we’re right on track. Also in this report is an estimate of unit labor …
Business Trends
What are the most significant trends affecting business today? McKinsey Quarterly has an interesting article summarizing survey results. Key takeaways: Business is changing rapidly, due to product innovation, easier communication, cheap capital Competition is increasing …
Fed Policy Confusion
News reports say that the Fed is not getting its message across clearly. Certainly markets are jumping back and forth as their interpretation of the Fed’s message changes. But it’s not that hard. The Fed’s …
Semiconductors Stable at High Level
Worldwide semiconductor sales have stabilized in the last few months, at a sales pace near the all-time peak for the industry. This is dollar value; the actual volume and computing power is hugely greater. However, …
Growth continues at stable pace
Monthly figures for personal income show stable growth. Looking at recent history, recall that the Microsoft dividend (December 2004) caused income to spike up. The 12-month comparison the following December looked abnormally low. And then …
Employment Cost Increase Low
The employment cost index grew by about three percent in the first quarter. Surprisingly, benefits costs have decelerated and now are growing at about the same rate as wages: This data series is better than …
GDP Growth Strong Q1
GDP grew at a strong 4.8 percent rate in the first quarter. Long-run average is about three percent. A figure in the neighborhood of five percent was generally expected by us economists. Major contributors to …
Business Capital Spending Strong
Order for business capital goods strengthened last month. The aircraft sector had another great month, but everyday equipment also gained. The arguments for expansion of business capital spending are twofold. First, many industries are running …
New Home Sales Still Weak
The Wall Street Journal blared about the home sales rebound. Look at the data: Yes, sales rebounded in March, from February’s stunningly low pace. But the trend is still down. Even more frightening is the …