Blog - Page 93 of 95 - Conerly Consulting

Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

12 Apr 2006

Foreign Trade Declined

Economy

Most headlines are reading "Foreign Trade DEFICIT Declined," but I’m not very interested in the trade deficit. It’s hard to see that it’s affecting us much. After all, the most widely expected result of the …

8 Apr 2006

Is Bad Government Better Than No Government At All?

Public Policy

This question isn’t directly relevant to America. For all of our complaints, we really don’t know what bad government is. For Somalia, though, the question is relevant. It turns out the answer is that no …

8 Apr 2006

Consumers Not Borrowing More

Economy

Consumers have leveled off their credit: This series does not include real estate loans; it counts credit cards, car loans, etc. It appears that consumers are trying to limit their debt (good idea), helped perhaps …

8 Apr 2006

Hiring Will Get Tougher

Business Strategy

The employment report should heighten the attention of business leaders on hiring challenges. First, look at the tightening labor market: Our 4.7 percent national unemployment rate is a far cry from a few years ago. …

8 Apr 2006

Solid Job Growth

Economy

The economy continued to grow total employment last month. The growth rate of employment is 1.6 percent over the last 12 months. Our population growth is running about 0.9 percent, so we are putting a …

6 Apr 2006

Investment Returns in First Quarter

Economy

The Capital Spectator has a neat chart on first quarter investment returns. View it here. Although the stock market has looked anemic to my eye, small caps, emerging market and developed country stocks really did …

5 Apr 2006

Peak Oil Again

Business Strategy

After posting the comments on peak oil theory yesterday, I ran across two good articles on the topic. "Peak Oil Panic" by Ronald Bailey in Reason Magazine’s May 2006 issue is an excellent summary of …

4 Apr 2006

Peak Oil? Make Sense?

Business Strategy

Oil production will peak some day? Probably. But a peak that’s 100 years out is not too relevant to today’s decisions. If oil production peaks due to falling demand, as would happen with development of …

4 Apr 2006

Car Sales Flat

Economy

Car sales are stable. Ho hum. I expect car sales to sag a bit in 2006, due to rising interest rates. Surprisingly, though, the low rates of the last few years have not really stimulated …

3 Apr 2006

Bankrupt Industry, Bankrupt Business Model

Business Strategy

The airline industry is, by and large, bankrupt. Google "airlines in bankruptcy 2006" and you’ll see plenty of names: United, American, Delta, Northwest, Aloha, ATA, US Airways. Since the beginning of commercial air travel, the …

3 Apr 2006

Manufacturing Looking OK

Economy

Manufacturing activity expanded last month. The ISM index (formerly called Purchasing Managers Index) shows expansion any time it’s above 50: We’re not booming as we had been back in 2003, in the sharpest period of …

31 Mar 2006

Personal Income Growth Stable

Economy

This is going to take some explaining, but personal income growth is running stable at about 5 1/2 percent annual growth. That upward spike in December 2004 was the Microsoft dividend. The second downward spike, …