Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

Foreign Trade Declined

Most headlines are reading "Foreign Trade DEFICIT Declined," but I’m not very interested in the trade deficit.  It’s hard to see that it’s affecting us much.  After all, the most widely expected result of the …
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Consumers Not Borrowing More

Consumers have leveled off their credit: This series does not include real estate loans; it counts credit cards, car loans, etc.  It appears that consumers are trying to limit their debt (good idea), helped perhaps …
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Hiring Will Get Tougher

The employment report should heighten the attention of business leaders on hiring challenges.  First, look at the tightening labor market: Our 4.7 percent national unemployment rate is a far cry from a few years ago. …
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Investment Returns in First Quarter

The Capital Spectator has a neat chart on first quarter investment returns.  View it here. Although the stock market has looked anemic to my eye, small caps, emerging market and developed country stocks really did …
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Peak Oil Again

After posting the comments on peak oil theory yesterday, I ran across two good articles on the topic. "Peak Oil Panic" by Ronald Bailey in Reason Magazine’s May 2006 issue is an excellent summary of …
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Peak Oil? Make Sense?

Oil production will peak some day?  Probably.  But a peak that’s 100 years out is not too relevant to today’s decisions.  If oil production peaks due to falling demand, as would happen with development of …
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Bankrupt Industry, Bankrupt Business Model

The airline industry is, by and large, bankrupt.  Google "airlines in bankruptcy 2006" and you’ll see plenty of names: United, American, Delta, Northwest, Aloha, ATA, US Airways.  Since the beginning of commercial air travel, the …
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