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Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

28 Apr 2006

GDP Growth Strong Q1

Economy
GDP grew at a strong 4.8 percent rate in the first quarter.  Long-run average is about three percent.  A figure in the neighborhood of five percent was generally expected by us economists. Major contributors to …
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26 Apr 2006

Business Capital Spending Strong

Economy
Order for business capital goods strengthened last month.  The aircraft sector had another great month, but everyday equipment also gained. The arguments for expansion of business capital spending are twofold.  First, many industries are running …
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26 Apr 2006

New Home Sales Still Weak

Economy
The Wall Street Journal blared about the home sales rebound.  Look at the data: Yes, sales rebounded in March, from February’s stunningly low pace.  But the trend is still down.  Even more frightening is the …
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25 Apr 2006

Consumers Happy

Economy
Consumer confidence rose this month, according to the Conference Board. Watching consumers directly makes more sense than asking them questions, but there’s some comfort in having the survey response match the behavior.  Right now confidence …
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20 Apr 2006

Big Cities Losing Population

Economy
The Census reports that our largest metropolitan areas have more people moving out than moving in, excluding foreign immigration.  Not only are the old northeastern cities losing domestic residents, but so are Los Angeles and …
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20 Apr 2006

World Economic Outlook

Economy
Need to follow economic developments around the world?  A good starting place is the International Monetary Fund’s semi-annual World Economic Outlook.  The IMF just issued their April 2006 report.  Read it here.  It’s long and …
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18 Apr 2006

Housing Starts Lowest in 12 Months

Economy
Last month’s housing starts were the lowest in 12 months: The month-to-month figures bounce around a lot, but this is definitely a down bounce.  I think new housing construction is past its peak and headed …
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14 Apr 2006

Immigration’s Impact on Low-Wage Americans

Public Policy
Nice, short, readable article by an economics professor (wow!) about immigration.  Read it here.  Key takeaways from Alan  Krueger’s article:1) the best research suggests that foreign immigrants don’t depress the wages or employment opportunities of …
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14 Apr 2006

Homebuying for Investment (Speculation?)

Economy
The National Association of Realtors reports that last year, 27.7 percent of all home sales were for investment purposes, while another 12.2 percent were vacation homes.  Read the NAR press release.This is consistent with my …
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14 Apr 2006

Industry Chugging Forward

Economy
Industrial production moved forward at a very nice pace last month.  Although the overall figure gets the headline, I prefer to look at manufacturing production.  The total number also includes utilities and mining, and weather …
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