Low Interest Rates & Stock Market Gains

I’m expecting low interest rates and stock market returns over the next five years.  Ben Bernanke, before he was Federal Reserve chairman, talked about a global savings glut.  Here’s how we get there. The emerging …
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Investments for a Recession

In previous posts we talked about how business can plan for recession, and how families can plan for recession.  Now let’s talk about how investors can plan for recession. First, don’t throw out a good …
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Risk in Financial Markets: Going Up?

Jim Hamilton over at Econbrowser has an interesting post entitled Where’s the Risk?  He looked at bond yield spreads and didn’t see any higher risk. I wanted to look at daily data, in both long …
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How Quants Go Wrong

Here’s a great quote from a recent Wall Street Journal article: "Events that models only predicted would happen once in 10,000 years happened every day for three days."  Matthew Rothman, Ph.D., Lehman Brother Holdings I …
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Businomics on Podcast

I’m trying the podcast thing, using an excerpt from the Businomics Audio Magazine regarding real estate investments and diversification.  Hit the iTunes store and search for either Bill Conerly or Businomics.  Tell me what you …
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Stock Market Volatility: Traders in the Hamptons?

The market’s been highly volatile lately.  According the CBOE’s VIX index, we’ve seen the most volatile market in the past month.  That got me to wondering:  are the traders heading off to the Hamptons for …
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Stock Prices and Rising Interest Rates

Long-term interest rates are rising, having risen one-half percentage point in the last month.  Given my forecast of at least another full percentage point increase in the next year, I asked, what will happen to …
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