The Fed: Time for a Vacation.
What will the Fed do next? They are scheduled to meet again in August. In thinking about their next move, I ask myself, what would I do if I had Bernanke’s job? I’d ponder two …
Are There No Demon Customers?
A few years back, a book pronounced that there were angel customers and demon customers. The angels are profitable, and the demons are unprofitable. If the demons cannot be made profitable, they need to be …
Funny Listening
I just learned that the Capitol Steps have many of their new songs on line. Listen here.If you’ve been to a major convention in Washington, DC, you may have heard their hilarious songs about current …
All Not All Deficits Are Created Equal
That’s a critical point made by economist John Tatom in an article published in the Financial Analysts Journal. (The link points to an earlier version of the paper; the final version is not available on …
Housing Construction Falling
New housing construction is falling. This morning’s data showed a five percent increase, but the trend is pretty clear: The sharp drops of the previous two months were partially reversed, but the new pace of …
Call Centers = Profit Centers?
A couple of months ago I asked "Can customer service become a profit center?" Now McKinsey & Company have considered the same question. (Are they reading this blog?) They find that call centers can, in …
CPI Rises, Ensures Rate Hike
OK, today’s CPI report pretty much guarantees the Fed will hike rates the end of this month. The rise in the "core rate" (the CPI excluding food and energy) is most worrisome to the Fed. …
Retail Sales Flat
Retail sales were flat last month. Biggest problem was cars, which were down a percent and a half. Gasoline purchases–not adjusted for price increases–rose nearly two percent, so we didn’t have a lot left over …
Productivity Improvement Spreading
In the 1990s, productivity (output per work hour) growth was concentrated in just a few industries. We know that high tech companies substantially gained in productivity, including semiconductor manufacturers and computer assemblers. Surprisingly, the rest …
What Will the Fed Do Next?
I’ve got my opinions, but it makes sense to see what the market thinks. By manipulating data on options on Fed Funds futures, you can estimate the market’s expectations in terms of the probability of …
Radio Interview
I was interviewed on the Sound Investing radio show out of Seattle. We covered investments and the economy. To hear it, click here. My segment begins at 31 minutes, 15 seconds into the program. Incidentally, …