One Down Quarter for the Economy Is Not a Recession
The rough rule of thumb is that a recession has two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.* Why not just one quarter? We have a good example of why not just one quarter …
Economic Forecast 2014-2015 on Video
My recent presentation for clients of Northwest Investment Counselors is available in (edited) video on their website: http://www.nwic.net/ under News & Events. Permalinks: Part 1 and Part 2.
Bank Loans Easier For Businesses To Get
The Federal Reserve's latest survey of senior loan officers has some cheery news. I like to look at the percentage of banks tightening credit standards, versus easing credit standards. Keep in mind that banks are …
Solid job gains, falling unemployment
Today's employment report was good. Lots of jobs added, and unemployment took a sizable drop. This isn't full employment yet, but the economy is clearly improving. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning one contractor …
GDP Lousy But Not Awful
Today's GDP report showed positive growth, by the least little bit possible, 0.1 percent. This is lousy, but it's not awful because some of the bad news is temporary. The bad weather is part of …
Housing Vacancy Rates Flat
Forget what the Realtors call "inventory." Forget short-sales, bank-owned, and upside-down. The best measure of the housing market is how many units are empty. A normal market has vacancy. Someone moves out of a house, …
Consumers In Moderate Mode
Consumers are feeling better about current conditions and prospects for the future, but the improvement is gradual and subject to short-term swings. Business leaders reading the papers or watching TV might think that "consumers are …
Business Capital Spending Flat
Businesses are not growing their capital expenditures, though we can take a little comfort that neither are they shrinking them. Corporations are sitting on lots of cash, and interest rates are very low for credit-worth …
Corporate Executives Are Lagging, Not Leading
In economic indicator parlance, a "leading indicator" changes BEFORE the overall economy changes. (Think of the "lead dog" rather than the "leading lady".) A lagging indicator changes AFTER the overall economy. The Business Roundtable quarterly …
Economic Forecast 2014 Presented By Banner Bank
The Economic Alliance of Snohomish County’s “Economic Forecast 2014,” presented by Banner Bank, will be March 20, 2014. The keynote speaker will be Dr. Bill Conerly, known for connecting the dots between the economy . …
Should Economists Talk About Redistribution?
A distinguished economist was disqualified for an Obama administration appointment because she had talked about the need for redistribution policies. Rebecca Blank, a highly regarded researcher on poverty and inequality, had been considered to chair …
Future of the Dollar as a World Reserve Currency
My Forbes.com article Future of the Dollar as a World Reserve Currency is getting lots of attention. Key topics include why do countries hold foreign currency reserves, why do they hold dollars as reserves rather …