Questions About Recessions
What will cause the next recession? In 2014 I wrote The Next Recession: Cause and Timing and said, “The Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its stimulus is the most likely cause of the next recession. For …
Trump and the Future of ObamaCare
In my Forbes article, President Trump's Policies Will Likely Slow Economic Growth Over The Next Two Years, I expressed skepticism about Republican willingness to actually repeal Obamacare. Now the nation's top free-market health care expert …
New Business Competitors: Lessons from Leicester City
Is there a small competitor about to clean your business’s clock? Will your sales be Amazoned, iPhoned or Ubered? Is there a Leicester in your league? The Leicester City Football Club just won the Barclay’s …
Get Ready for President Clinton
We're still months away from the election, but my favorite political forecaster, Larry Sabato, has drilled down to important realities in The Electoral College: The Only Thing That Matters. He notes that it's too early …
Marriage Is Good For Your Heart (and other Valentine’s Day Statistics)
Listen to yesterday's Prairie Home Companion song on romantic statistics: scroll down to "Statistics" after clicking here. Happy Valentine's Day, readers. Bill
Are We In Recession Now?
I often hear commentators saying that we are already in a recession. This could be the case because the data always come out with a time lag. The official arbiter of recessions, the Business Cycle …
The Presidency and the Economy
I don't incorporate much politics into my economic forecasts. I'm no better than average at predicting electoral outcomes. Even if I knew who was going to win, I wouldn't know what that person would do …
What Corporate CEOs Need To Know About Big Data
Steve Levitt, author of Freakonomics, gave a presentation on big data in corporations. It should be watched by all CEOs and wanna-be CEOs. It's discouraging in that it shows many companies' unwillingness to use the …
Data Junkies Need “Spreadsheet Tips From An Excel Addict”
As a guy who pushes numbers around, I've been a spreadsheet power user since the days of Lotus 1-2-3. But I've learned tons of new Excel tips in the past year by subscribing (for free) …
Political Outlook 2016
The most interesting pollster is Larry Sabato, who recently had this to say about the presidential candidates: … most of them are human tape recorders. On the top 25 or 30 issues, each has memorized …
Business Economics Posts On My Forbes.com Blog
Most of my work is going onto my Forbes.com blog. Here are my recent posts that have gotten a lot of attention: What's Next For The Stock Market After A Big Drop? Manufacturing Has Come …
Why I Don’t Watch TV News About The Economy
This is why I don't watch TV News. (Hat tip to Eric Fruits, Econ International Blog)