Blog - Page 13 of 95 - Conerly Consulting

Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

16 Aug 2011

Interview on Investor Radio

Economy Investments

I was interviewed this past weekend on InvestoRadio, about the stock market volatility, the S&P downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt, and the risk of another recession. Listen here. (My interview starts about one-fourth of the …

5 Aug 2011

Probability of Recession: Is It Really One in Three?

Larry Summers recently wrote in the Washington Post: On the current policy path, it would be surprising if growth were rapid enough to reduce unemployment even to 8.5 percent by the end of 2012…. With …

1 Aug 2011

Budget Deal and the Economic Outlook

Economy Public Policy

Note: this post has been edited from its original content. New material is at the end. Keynesians are bemoaning the new budget deal. Cutting federal spending when the economy is soft will further weaken us, …

31 Jul 2011

U.S. Debt and Ratings Agencies: Not a Big Deal for Interest Rates

Economy

What if the rating agencies downgrade U.S. Treasury bonds? Does that mean our government will have to pay higher interest rates? Perhaps not. When a borrower’s fundamental ability to repay a debt deteriorates, it’s reasonable …

29 Jul 2011

Economy Looking Weak, Data Revisions Don’t Help

Economy

The economy is certainly weak. The latest report on GDP showed sub-par growth in the second quarter. Revisions to past data, which occur every summer, showed that the first quarter was even worse than we …

28 Jul 2011

Economic Recovery Hampered by Vendor Performance Problems: Four Steps for Companies with Supply Chain Challenges

Business Strategy Economy

The Wall Street Journal reports: "Supply Kinks Stall Trucks: Parts Scarcity Has Manufacturers Scrambling to Meet Rising Orders." I've heard of a non-truck manufacturer who is limited by his vendor's delivery of heavy castings. He …

27 Jul 2011

Bad Corporate Strategy–and Good

Business Strategy

I just read one of the most important short papers on corporate strategy, published by McKinsey Quarterly. In "The Perils of Bad Strategy," Richard Rumelt explains common errors in developing corporate strategy. It's based on …

25 Jul 2011

The Economic Value of Sales Forecasting

Business Strategy Economy

Aberdeen Research has just released a very significant report: "Sales Forecasting: How Top Performers Leverage the Past, Visualize the Present and Improve Their Future Revenue." They look at the value of a good sales forecasting …

25 Jul 2011

In This Economy . . .

Economy

check out this cartoon from the New Yorker. Key message: In this economy, it's crucial to begin every sentence with "In this economy."

22 Jul 2011

Cotton Economics: Demand is the Hare, Supply is the Tortoise

Economy

So what did you think of cotton back in April? If you had charted its price, here's what you would have seen: Wow! Isn't that pretty certainly the next sure thing? It's going through the …

17 Jul 2011

The Trial and Error Economy

Business Strategy Economy Trial and Error Economy

For years I have been writing about the Trial and Error Economy. Now there's a great TED talk on the subject by Tim Harford: To read my articles on the subject, scroll down on …

13 Jul 2011

Small Business in the Economic Doldrums

Economy

Small business is down in the dumps. Just compare the attitudes shown in NFIB's survey of small business owners with the Business Roundtable's survey of corporate CEOs: It's always a little dangerous to compare one …