Uncategorized Archives - Page 5 of 10

8 Oct 2008

TED Spread: How High Is Financial Risk Today?

The market's fear is reflected in the TED spread, a cute, cuddly name given to the difference in interest rates between inter-bank loans (LIBOR) and U.S. treasury bills. We use 3 month maturities on both …

15 Aug 2008

Recession? Different Method, Same Answer

Ed Leamer of UCLA has a very interesting discussion that relates directly to my recent post asserting that we probably weren't in a recession. Here's the abstract of his paper: Monthly US data on payroll …

15 Aug 2008

Recession of 2008? Evidence Is Still Weak

If I were an economic advisor to a presidential candidate, I couldn't say it: The economy may not be in recession. The generally acknowledged decider is the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau …

14 Aug 2008

Retail Sales Weak, But Towel Not Being Thrown In

"Consumers are just throwing in the towel" according to Global Insight economist Brian Bethune. I like a nice quote, but Bethune displays utter ignorance in his search for news exposure. Let's take a look at …

7 Aug 2008

Movies Recession-Prone: Another Myth Dies

Hollywood has said that it's recession proof, because in hard times people will seek escape from their worries by going to the movies. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reports a new study that found …

4 Aug 2008

Auto Sales: Grounds for Optimism

Car sales are in the tank, but I’m optimistic, much more so than I am for housing. First, here’s the recent bad news on automobile sales: This is your basic falling-off-a-cliff chart. What’s the reason …

3 Aug 2008

The Economics of Construction

Also web design and (maybe) economic research. sorry I don’t recall where I saw this first; maybe Sailing Anarchy.

31 Jul 2008

Recession? Not in 2008

Wall Street’s rule of thumb, that recession is two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, is not technically correct. But it’s not a bad rule of thumb. Certainly there’s no recession when the economy is growing …

30 Jul 2008

Seattle Home Prices

If you bought a home in the Seattle metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before June 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased …

30 Jul 2008

Dallas Home Prices: You’re OK If …

If you bought a home in the Dallas metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before March 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased …

30 Jul 2008

Portland Home Prices: You’re OK If …

If you bought a home in the Portland metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before May 2006 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased …

30 Jul 2008

Cleveland Home Prices: You’re OK If …

If you bought a home in the Cleveland metropolitan area, do you have a profit or a loss? If you bought before May 2002 then you probably have a profit. The average buyer who purchased …