Budget Deal and the Economic Outlook
Note: this post has been edited from its original content. New material is at the end. Keynesians are bemoaning the new budget deal. Cutting federal spending when the economy is soft will further weaken us, …
U.S. Debt and Ratings Agencies: Not a Big Deal for Interest Rates
What if the rating agencies downgrade U.S. Treasury bonds? Does that mean our government will have to pay higher interest rates? Perhaps not. When a borrower’s fundamental ability to repay a debt deteriorates, it’s reasonable …
Economy Looking Weak, Data Revisions Don’t Help
The economy is certainly weak. The latest report on GDP showed sub-par growth in the second quarter. Revisions to past data, which occur every summer, showed that the first quarter was even worse than we …
Economic Recovery Hampered by Vendor Performance Problems: Four Steps for Companies with Supply Chain Challenges
The Wall Street Journal reports: "Supply Kinks Stall Trucks: Parts Scarcity Has Manufacturers Scrambling to Meet Rising Orders." I've heard of a non-truck manufacturer who is limited by his vendor's delivery of heavy castings. He …
The Economic Value of Sales Forecasting
Aberdeen Research has just released a very significant report: "Sales Forecasting: How Top Performers Leverage the Past, Visualize the Present and Improve Their Future Revenue." They look at the value of a good sales forecasting …
In This Economy . . .
check out this cartoon from the New Yorker. Key message: In this economy, it's crucial to begin every sentence with "In this economy."
Cotton Economics: Demand is the Hare, Supply is the Tortoise
So what did you think of cotton back in April? If you had charted its price, here's what you would have seen: Wow! Isn't that pretty certainly the next sure thing? It's going through the …
The Trial and Error Economy
For years I have been writing about the Trial and Error Economy. Now there's a great TED talk on the subject by Tim Harford: To read my articles on the subject, scroll down on …
Small Business in the Economic Doldrums
Small business is down in the dumps. Just compare the attitudes shown in NFIB's survey of small business owners with the Business Roundtable's survey of corporate CEOs: It's always a little dangerous to compare one …
Why the Economy Is Weak Now, But Will Be Stronger Near Yearend
Today's employment report emphasized the weakness of recent economic data. Note that the last two monthly data points are inside the red circle. In other words, employment barely grew at all. Yet we had significant …
Housing Recovery Progressing Very Slowly, 2011 edition
We've been saying it for a while, and it's still true. The pace of housing recovery is terribly slow. It's not about foreclosures, at least not directly. It's not about short-sales, again not directly. It's …
What Do Local Business Leaders Need to Know About the National and Global Economy?
Everywhere I go to speak, local business leaders tell me they are not interested in GDP or the European debt crisis—they just want to know about business in their own town. Whether they sell insurance, …