The Survey of Professional Forecasters compiled by the Philadelphia Fed (more details here) shows another downward revision to the forecast.
The survey occurs quarterly, so we’re looking at early May forecasts compared to early February forecasts.
I like looking at the consensus economic forecast. It tends to be more accurate than the projections of any one forecaster. There’s also valuable content in the direction of forecast revisions. So we learn:
- An upturn in economic growth is likely
- The revision–less optimistic than before–leads me to temper point number 1.
I’m still more optimistic than the consensus, but there is certainly grounds for worry.