Consensus Economic Forecast Lowered, But Manufacturing on the Mend

The consensus economic forecast is just a hair less optimistic, we learned from a recent compilation by the Fed of Philadelphia.

Although not perfect, the consensus forecast is probably better than any one forecast, over the long haul.  Not only do I pay close attention to the consensus, but I also watch how it changes from quarter to quarter.  This reduction in the forecast growth rate follows on a similar change a quarter ago.  So the change in consensus is small, but in the wrong direction.

You want good news?  Manufacturing is recovering.

These data confirm the idea that we had a mini-cycle (a recessionette?) six months ago, and we’re out of it.  Breathe a sigh of relief.