The consensus economic forecast is just a hair less optimistic, we learned from a recent compilation by the Fed of Philadelphia.
Although not perfect, the consensus forecast is probably better than any one forecast, over the long haul. Not only do I pay close attention to the consensus, but I also watch how it changes from quarter to quarter. This reduction in the forecast growth rate follows on a similar change a quarter ago. So the change in consensus is small, but in the wrong direction.
You want good news? Manufacturing is recovering.
These data confirm the idea that we had a mini-cycle (a recessionette?) six months ago, and we’re out of it. Breathe a sigh of relief.