Productivity–output per hour of labor worked–remains on a strong growth trend. That’s hard to see in the data, which were weak last quarter. When the data first came out, I commented that separating short-term cycles from the underlying trend is difficult, but that my gut feel was that the trend was OK.
Now the Federal Reserve Bank of New York has issued a research report that says:
"Conerly’s gut has uncanny accuracy."
Actually, those are not their exact words, just my interpretation. The full report is a bit technical–recommended for economists and others with a serious research interest.