Interest Rates & Foreign Central Banks

I continue to forecast a one percentage point rise in long-term rates over the next year or so.  A key element is that foreign central banks will have less appetite for U.S. treasuries now that their pouches are about full of them.  (By which I mean, they have adequate reserves to prevent a run on their currency as happened to several countries during the Asian financial crisis.)

Brad Setser has a very good summary of the impact of foreign banks on U.S. long-term interest rates.  This article would be good reading for CFOs, treasurers, investors, economics students, but is a bit more technical than I would recommend for the average reader of this blog.  (I think.)