Blog - Page 94 of 95 - Conerly Consulting

Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

31 Mar 2006

Personal Income Growth Stable

Economy

This is going to take some explaining, but personal income growth is running stable at about 5 1/2 percent annual growth. That upward spike in December 2004 was the Microsoft dividend. The second downward spike, …

30 Mar 2006

Corporate Profits Rebound

Corporate profits looked good in the fourth quarter, partially because of the comparison to third quarter, which was weakened by hurricane Katrina. Still, it’s a good number, and on trend. However, look for less growth …

28 Mar 2006

Bernanke Raises Interest Rates

Economy

In its first meeting with Ben Bernanke as chair, the Fed raised short-term interest rates a quarter point. So Ben is willing to raise rates. No surprise there. And the Fed sees strength in current …

28 Mar 2006

Rockies & Sunbelt look good

Economy

State personal income shows fastest growth in the Rockies and the Sunbelt. The common factor is rapid population growth. Folks are moving into these regions, pushing personal income up. On a per capita basis, the …

28 Mar 2006

Consumer Confidence: Beware the Headline

Economy

The Wall Street Journal headline: "Consumer Confidence Soars Amid Strong Start to 2006" Now take a look at the data: That last data point, the small increase, is confidence soaring. In truth, confidence is pretty …

27 Mar 2006

Capital Goods Orders

Economy

Monthly data on orders for capital goods were soft, but not very far off trend. So, no need to change a forecast here, but no cause for celebration either. Computer equipment still looks OK, but …

24 Mar 2006

Home Sales Weak: The End is Near

Economy

New home sales are weak, and existing home sales are past their peak. What’s even more indicative of a market weakening is the large inventory of unsold homes. Keep in mind that January weather nationally …

21 Mar 2006

Producer Prices Down Nicely

Economy

Inflation in producer prices declined nicely in February–but the statisticians haven’t yet tallied this month’s gasoline costs. The government report showed a large decline in energy costs. Here’s what’s not to like: even excluding food …

17 Mar 2006

Production Headline Better Than Reality

Economy

Industrial production rose nicely in February, but the gain was primarily due to utilities having more business in February than in unseasonably-mild January. The better gauge for month-to-month fluctuations is industrial production in the manufacturing …

16 Mar 2006

Housing Starts Continue Strong

Economy

OK, the headlines say that housing starts dropped. But really, January was abnormally high, thanks to mild weather in much of the country (reversed in February). The trend looks steady to my eyes: Permits for …

16 Mar 2006

Inflation Not Bad

Economy

Today’s news was OK. I usually look at the CPI in 12-month percent change format: I see that high energy inflation (included in "All Items") has not bled through to the core inflation rate ("Ex …

15 Mar 2006

Inventories Look Lean

Economy

The inventory and sales report on American business shows that inventories are lean. This usually means that production will be increased to restock shelves. But look at the longer-run trend: For over a decade, we’ve …