Blog - Page 4 of 95 - Conerly Consulting

Most of Bill’s current writings appear on Forbes.com where he is a Senior Contributor.

2 May 2014

Solid job gains, falling unemployment

Business Strategy Economy

Today's employment report was good. Lots of jobs added, and unemployment took a sizable drop. This isn't full employment yet, but the economy is clearly improving. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning one contractor …

30 Apr 2014

GDP Lousy But Not Awful

Economy

Today's GDP report showed positive growth, by the least little bit possible, 0.1 percent. This is lousy, but it's not awful because some of the bad news is temporary. The bad weather is part of …

29 Apr 2014

Housing Vacancy Rates Flat

Economy Real Estate

Forget what the Realtors call "inventory." Forget short-sales, bank-owned, and upside-down. The best measure of the housing market is how many units are empty. A normal market has vacancy. Someone moves out of a house, …

25 Apr 2014

Consumers In Moderate Mode

Books Business Strategy

Consumers are feeling better about current conditions and prospects for the future, but the improvement is gradual and subject to short-term swings. Business leaders reading the papers or watching TV might think that "consumers are …

24 Apr 2014

Business Capital Spending Flat

Economy

Businesses are not growing their capital expenditures, though we can take a little comfort that neither are they shrinking them. Corporations are sitting on lots of cash, and interest rates are very low for credit-worth …

26 Mar 2014

Corporate Executives Are Lagging, Not Leading

Economy

In economic indicator parlance, a "leading indicator" changes BEFORE the overall economy changes. (Think of the "lead dog" rather than the "leading lady".) A lagging indicator changes AFTER the overall economy. The Business Roundtable quarterly …

17 Jan 2014

Economic Forecast 2014 Presented By Banner Bank

Promotional Videos Video

The Economic Alliance of Snohomish County’s “Economic Forecast 2014,” presented by Banner Bank, will be March 20, 2014. The keynote speaker will be Dr. Bill Conerly, known for connecting the dots between the economy . …

2 Dec 2013

Should Economists Talk About Redistribution?

Public Policy

A distinguished economist was disqualified for an Obama administration appointment because she had talked about the need for redistribution policies. Rebecca Blank, a highly regarded researcher on poverty and inequality, had been considered to chair …

29 Oct 2013

Future of the Dollar as a World Reserve Currency

Economy Investments

My Forbes.com article Future of the Dollar as a World Reserve Currency is getting lots of attention. Key topics include why do countries hold foreign currency reserves, why do they hold dollars as reserves rather …

25 Oct 2013

5 Biggest Impediments to Scenario Planning

Business Strategy Economy

Economic contingency planning is a specific case of scenario planning. I've not pushed scenario planning because so often I saw too simplistic examples, such as a base case that looks like a straight line, an …

12 Sep 2013

Businomics Newsletter

Economy

The latest issue of the Businomics Newsletter is out. Here's the first page; see it all at http://www.conerlyconsulting.com/this-months-charts/

4 Sep 2013

Employment Forecast 2014

Business Strategy Economy

I posted Jobs Outlook 2013-14 on my Forbes.com blog. Key takeaway: Job growth should remain steady at a sluggish pace for a few more months, and then accelerate to a moderate growth rate, without ever …