Dr. Bill Conerly’s Inflation Track Record

Articles published on Forbes.com:

Higher Inflation from the Fed’s New Strategy, August 28, 2020: “Add to the Fed’s new strategy their recent tactics: huge stimulus…. Yet the stimulus cannot be matched by increased production of goods and services. The economy was running labor-constrained until Covid-19 hit us, and now it’s further constrained by social distancing requirements. More dollars, with fewer goods and services available to buy, makes a formula for inflation.”

It’s Time for Inflation Hedges: Consider Gold, Mining Stocks & Farmland, October 10, 2020: “Although inflation has been low and fairly steady in the past decade, prices will begin accelerating in 2021 and 2022. The Federal Reserve will be slow to react, allowing inflation to accelerate for two or three years …”

Inflation Has Not Shown Up Yet, But It’s Coming, February 25, 2021: At some point, probably late in 2021, consumers will feel more confident about their finances, and they will resume spending growth…. Businesses will see their customers spending more and will invest in equipment, computers and real estate to serve them….Those who worried about inflation a decade ago have been proved wrong. But that does not mean invulnerability of our economy to inflation. With all of the stimulus being poured in, inflation is inevitable….”

Why the Fed Is Wrong About The Coming Inflation, May 14, 2021: “The people at the Federal Reserve are smart, conscientious and well-intentioned. They are also imperfect, as we all are. And in 2021, they are wrong about inflation.”

Federal Reserve Meeting: Get Ready For More Inflation, June 16, 2021: “Some of recent inflation is certainly temporary, but much of the coming inflation is not…. there’s far more to the story than temporary factors. Monetary policy has pushed $3.8 trillion of virtually-printed money into the economy since January 2020”

The Industries That Will Be Helped—And Hurt—By Inflation, June 29, 2021: “Inflation is not baked in the cake at this point, mid-year 2021, but it is quite likely to accelerate. Not just in the coming months, but also in the coming years will inflation run higher….”

Causes of Inflation: Forecasting the Federal Reserve And Supply Shortages, December 17, 2021: “Business leaders should plan on higher inflation in the next three years at least. The consumer price index is likely to increase by six percent again in 2022 and 2023.”

The Fed Still Doesn’t Get It; Inflation Will Stay High Next Year, June 15, 2022: “The Fed believes that its own statements, forward guidance and credibility are hugely important. That is probably hubris, the overestimation of one’s own power that was regularly punished in Greek legends.”

Inflation Near Top, Soon to Drop, July 27, 2022: “…now the Federal Reserve has come to understand that they caused most of the inflation and that it’s their job to fix it.”

Why The Fed Is Fighting Inflation–And It’s Not To Help Consumers, August 23, 2022: “The Federal Reserve will take strong efforts to lower inflation, but not primarily to help consumers today. … their strong action comes from a belief that failure to bring inflation down now will result in much more persistent inflation, with more business cycles in the years to come.”