Here's one of the most interesting TED talks around. (Hat tip to Mark Perry at Carpe Diem.)
I'm not enough of a China expert to confirm or deny Martin Jacques's view, though his comments are consistent with the Chinese history I learned from the Teaching Company's lectures, "From Yao to Mao: 5000 Years of Chinese History."
If you have knowledge of China, please post your thoughts on this lecture in the comments.